Will San Diego Home Prices Drop in 2023?

November 4, 2022

Will San Diego Home Prices Drop in 2023?

by | Nov 4, 2022 | blog | 0 comments

san-diego-house-market-update

Are you wondering will San Diego home prices will drop in 2023? You came to the right place to get data-driven information to help you understand what is happening in the local real estate market. While no one has a crystal ball, we can utilize the best data available to have a good idea of what is ahead for home values in San Diego. To understand this properly we need to take a look at how we got here after two years of rapid appreciation in San Diego. 

Interest rates have a lot to do with San Diego home prices, let’s explain why

Most homes are purchased using a mortgage, typically 80-97% of the value of the property is funded through a mortgage. Throughout 2020 until the spring of 2022 rates were at all time record lows (2.6-3.5%). Rates so low they’d never happened before and these record low rates meant the cost to borrow funds had never been cheaper. Cheap money means your buying power increases.

This caused several things to occur that increased demand for houses in San Diego

1. More people could afford to buy a house in San Diego, Increasing demand.

2. It lowered the monthly payment for a house, so you could pay more for a house in San Diego and your payment would stay the same as before rates were lowered.

3. People could refinance their existing homes, withdrawing equity and they used that money to buy more real estate, increasing demand.

COVID19 impacted demand of San Diego homes too, here’s how.

COVID19 surprised everyone and it altered the behavior of people in a way that increased the demand for houses locally and nationally. Here is how COVID19 encouraged people to buy homes in San Diego

COVID19 related events that increased demand in San Diego

1. Remote work encouraged people to relocate to places they wanted to live, especially nice climates like San Diego.  

2. Families wanted a home to live in to avoid living in close quarters in apartments and condos during the pandemic.

3. People retired early, changed jobs, and made big life changes to relocate to nicer areas for outdoor activities.

4. Student loan payments were paused, increasing disposable income making it easier to fund the purchase of a home.

5. No travel, limited eating out and opportunities to spend caused increasing savings and people chose to spend that money on a house.

6. Less people sold their homes during the pandemic, restricting supply and increasing demand for house buyers.

 

san-diego-house-inventory

High demand, limited supply, growing savings and record low rates meant prices go up.

The perfect storm of increased disposable income, lowered interest rates and increased demand to own a home meant home prices could go up 30% and the payment would look the same as a home in 2019 with a higher rate mortgage. Homeowners didn’t care if the price was higher, the payment was the same. This drove San Diego real estate values up over 38% in two years.

 

The shift that occurred in 2022 that is leading to prices dropping, fast.

Many of the events that led to rapid price increases are no longer present. Interest rates the single most influential factor in the rapid increases of San Diego house prices, are increasing at the fastest rate in US history. This will impact how you can sell your house and for what amount.

Here is a table to show how much impact the changes in interests rates factor into what a house will cost you in San Diego. Your payment on a $700,000 home has increased 57% over last year. Home prices must come down. 

san-diego-home-price-dropping

When rates go up, prices go down. Its just that simple. 

San Diego home prices increased artificially due to the low supply and record low interest rates. Now that both of those factors are no longer present. Real estate values in San Diego are dropping, fast. We have not seen interest rates this high since 2007 and they have never been raised this fast in US history. There are some mitigating factors but this table shows just how much difference a payment would be to make sense at the new rates. 

A $700,000 home in San Diego with a 3% interest rate has a payment of $2951

To reach the same monthly payment at 7% interest rate that San Diego home would need to cost $550,000 

 

san-diego-home-sales-volume

With homes unaffordable due to interest rates, sales are plummeting. 

In summary, are San Diego home prices dropping? Yes. There is an increase in supply, a drop in demand and interest rates can no longer support the prices. No one knows how much San Diego home prices will go down, but the table listed above shows it could be as much as 25-30%

If you have any questions or would like to review the data used here to assess the San Diego home prices please don’t hesitate to reach out. 

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